Syria: Can Assad fight his way to political survival?

Despite the death and destruction his security forces are raining down on opposition-held neighborhoods in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to succeed in crushing a year-old rebellion. International revulsion at the crackdown and the breadth of an uprising that has seen Syrians take up arms in a fight to the death also make it increasingly unlikely that Assad will manage to reestablish the status quo ante through military force. But even if he can't win, Assad may have reason to believe, as he surveys the national and international battlefield he has created, that he can nonetheless fight to a messy draw. The difference between a draw and a defeat, for Assad, now amounts to this: Will he be at the table when a political solution to the conflict is negotiated?

The European Union on Monday announced new sanctions against Assad's regime in support of demands that he end his assault on opposition strongholds and accept an Arab League plan that requires him to surrender power. But the EU measures amounted largely to an incremental tightening of those previously imposed. The meeting in Tunis last Friday of the "Friends of Syria" ad-hoc forum also confirmed that while Western and Arab powers concur on the need for Assad to step down -- and before that, to halt his assaults on rebel-held areas and allow in humanitarian relief supplies -- there is limited agreement on new strategies to pursue those goals. Western powers have no appetite for direct military involvement in Syria, not only because of post-Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya intervention fatigue, but because the sectarian and regional political stakes in Syria's conflict threaten region-wide chaos. Support for direct military intervention appears to be lacking even if those doing the fighting are not Western troops: Qatar failed in its efforts to persuade the Friends of Syria to back intervention by an Arab force that would invade Syria to open humanitarian corridors to besieged cities.

(PHOTOS: Free Syrian Army Joins Anti-Assad Protests)

Qatar has since defaulted to the Saudi view that arming Syria's rebels is, as the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, put it, "an excellent idea." The vociferous advocacy of the Gulf states for funneling weapons to the insurgents reinforces widely held suspicions that they're probably already doing so. There may even be some non-lethal aid from Western countries, including communications equipment, medical supplies, night-vision goggles and other such equipment, reaching rebel forces. But the Saudis, who reportedly walked out of the Friends of Syria forum at one point, allegedly decrying its "inaction," could not persuade the forum to endorse even that idea.

The U.S. certainly remains skeptical of the proposal to send weapons to the opposition. "We don't really know who it is that would be armed," said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a CBS interview last weekend, noting the amorphous nature of the opposition and the fact that some of its elements are inimical to U.S. foreign policy goals. The Syrian opposition had the backing of al-Qaeda and the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas, she said, raising the question of who the U.S. would be supporting if it provided arms. "Despite the great pleas that we hear from those people who are being ruthlessly assaulted by Assad, you don't see uprisings across Syria the way you did in Libya," she continued. "You don't see militias forming in places where the Syrian military is not, trying to get to Homs... So if you're a military planner or if you're a Secretary of State and you're trying to figure out do you have the elements of an opposition that is actually viable, that we don't see."

(PHOTOS: Inside Syria's Civil War)

The U.S. and its allies may have hoped to crown the Syrian National Council (SNC) as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, as they did with the Benghazi-based Transitional National Council ahead of the intervention in Libya last year, but the fact that the Tunis gathering hailed the SNC as "a" rather than "the" representative of the Syrian people was telling. The extent of the SNC's authority on the ground remains questionable, and even its influence over the Free Syrian Army -- the umbrella insurgent organization of defectors from the regime's army and civilian volunteers, whose own control over fighting units on the ground appears to be limited -- is far from established. Some have argued that providing arms will help to organize the rebellion and build up the political authority of the SNC leadership under whose auspices such arms would be provided. But Clinton's concerns may have been underscored by Sunday's news that some of the SNC's most senior leaders had broken away to form the Syrian Patriotic Group, challenging the effectiveness of the SNC and giving less equivocal backing to armed rebellion.

While the majority of U.N. member states have backed the Arab League plan, Assad still enjoys strong support from Russia and Iran, and countries such as China and Iraq insist that any solution in Syria be based on diplomatic reforms and dialogue with the regime, rather than its a priori replacement. Needless to say, the Assad regime concurs: Even while it continued to rain artillery fire down on Homs and other opposition strongholds on Sunday, the regime also managed to stage a referendum on a package of constitutional reforms. Opposition leaders denounced the vote as a farce given the war being waged, and there's no way it could be taken as a sign of national consensus behind Assad-led reforms. But even if the regime's claim of a 57% turnout was exaggerated, Western journalists in the major cities of Damascus and Aleppo saw thousands of young voters turning out to participate in the poll in spite of opposition calls for a boycott. That served up a timely reminder that Assad's regime retains a substantial support base, with a number of key constituencies -- particularly his Alawite sect that dominates key military units, as well as Christians and other minorities that together make up as much as a third of the population -- fearful of their prospects should the rebellion triumph.

(MORE: Three Acclaimed Journalists Die Covering the War in Syria)

By militarizing the political contest in Syria, Assad has effectively created a sectarian civil war that presents the Syrian population with stark choices that work in his favor. And the more intense and protracted the military conflict becomes, the greater the danger that the de facto leadership of the rebellion passes to more extreme and sectarian elements -- which, of course, reinforces Assad's own hold on his core support.

All sides in Syria, then, appear to be hunkering down for a protracted civil war -- a conflict of a type that, given the external backing on which the combatants rely, is unlikely to end in a rout by either side. And if it ends at the negotiation table, as the Balkan wars of the 1990s did, Assad will be hoping at least to secure his place as a key player at the table. Indeed, even the SNC in a statement last Friday appeared to walk back from its refusal to engage with the regime, saying that negotiation -- if the regime first agrees to a cease-fire -- "is still possible and is likely the best way to achieve the desired goal of regime change." Council members and Western diplomats also tell reporters that Russia's role remains crucial in achieving any settlement to end the violence, despite its dissent from the international consensus.

No surprise, then, that European Union officials were careful following the adoption of the new sanctions on Monday to stress the importance of the role of Kofi Annan, the former U.N. Secretary General who has been appointed as joint U.N.-Arab League envoy for Syria. His job, of course, will be to talk the Assad regime and its enemies into some sort of workable compromise that can end the violence.

MORE: Just When They Needed It Least: The Syrian Opposition Fractures Again

VIDEO: Why They Protest: Egypt, Libya and Syria

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Syria: Can Assad fight his way to political survival?

Despite the death and destruction his security forces are raining down on opposition-held neighborhoods in Syria, President Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to succeed in crushing a year-old rebellion. International revulsion at the crackdown and the breadth of an uprising that has seen Syrians take up arms in a fight to the death also make it increasingly unlikely that Assad will manage to reestablish the status quo ante through military force. But even if he can't win, Assad may have reason to believe, as he surveys the national and international battlefield he has created, that he can nonetheless fight to a messy draw. The difference between a draw and a defeat, for Assad, now amounts to this: Will he be at the table when a political solution to the conflict is negotiated?

The European Union on Monday announced new sanctions against Assad's regime in support of demands that he end his assault on opposition strongholds and accept an Arab League plan that requires him to surrender power. But the EU measures amounted largely to an incremental tightening of those previously imposed. The meeting in Tunis last Friday of the "Friends of Syria" ad-hoc forum also confirmed that while Western and Arab powers concur on the need for Assad to step down -- and before that, to halt his assaults on rebel-held areas and allow in humanitarian relief supplies -- there is limited agreement on new strategies to pursue those goals. Western powers have no appetite for direct military involvement in Syria, not only because of post-Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya intervention fatigue, but because the sectarian and regional political stakes in Syria's conflict threaten region-wide chaos. Support for direct military intervention appears to be lacking even if those doing the fighting are not Western troops: Qatar failed in its efforts to persuade the Friends of Syria to back intervention by an Arab force that would invade Syria to open humanitarian corridors to besieged cities.

(PHOTOS: Free Syrian Army Joins Anti-Assad Protests)

Qatar has since defaulted to the Saudi view that arming Syria's rebels is, as the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, put it, "an excellent idea." The vociferous advocacy of the Gulf states for funneling weapons to the insurgents reinforces widely held suspicions that they're probably already doing so. There may even be some non-lethal aid from Western countries, including communications equipment, medical supplies, night-vision goggles and other such equipment, reaching rebel forces. But the Saudis, who reportedly walked out of the Friends of Syria forum at one point, allegedly decrying its "inaction," could not persuade the forum to endorse even that idea.

The U.S. certainly remains skeptical of the proposal to send weapons to the opposition. "We don't really know who it is that would be armed," said Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a CBS interview last weekend, noting the amorphous nature of the opposition and the fact that some of its elements are inimical to U.S. foreign policy goals. The Syrian opposition had the backing of al-Qaeda and the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas, she said, raising the question of who the U.S. would be supporting if it provided arms. "Despite the great pleas that we hear from those people who are being ruthlessly assaulted by Assad, you don't see uprisings across Syria the way you did in Libya," she continued. "You don't see militias forming in places where the Syrian military is not, trying to get to Homs... So if you're a military planner or if you're a Secretary of State and you're trying to figure out do you have the elements of an opposition that is actually viable, that we don't see."

(PHOTOS: Inside Syria's Civil War)

The U.S. and its allies may have hoped to crown the Syrian National Council (SNC) as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, as they did with the Benghazi-based Transitional National Council ahead of the intervention in Libya last year, but the fact that the Tunis gathering hailed the SNC as "a" rather than "the" representative of the Syrian people was telling. The extent of the SNC's authority on the ground remains questionable, and even its influence over the Free Syrian Army -- the umbrella insurgent organization of defectors from the regime's army and civilian volunteers, whose own control over fighting units on the ground appears to be limited -- is far from established. Some have argued that providing arms will help to organize the rebellion and build up the political authority of the SNC leadership under whose auspices such arms would be provided. But Clinton's concerns may have been underscored by Sunday's news that some of the SNC's most senior leaders had broken away to form the Syrian Patriotic Group, challenging the effectiveness of the SNC and giving less equivocal backing to armed rebellion.

While the majority of U.N. member states have backed the Arab League plan, Assad still enjoys strong support from Russia and Iran, and countries such as China and Iraq insist that any solution in Syria be based on diplomatic reforms and dialogue with the regime, rather than its a priori replacement. Needless to say, the Assad regime concurs: Even while it continued to rain artillery fire down on Homs and other opposition strongholds on Sunday, the regime also managed to stage a referendum on a package of constitutional reforms. Opposition leaders denounced the vote as a farce given the war being waged, and there's no way it could be taken as a sign of national consensus behind Assad-led reforms. But even if the regime's claim of a 57% turnout was exaggerated, Western journalists in the major cities of Damascus and Aleppo saw thousands of young voters turning out to participate in the poll in spite of opposition calls for a boycott. That served up a timely reminder that Assad's regime retains a substantial support base, with a number of key constituencies -- particularly his Alawite sect that dominates key military units, as well as Christians and other minorities that together make up as much as a third of the population -- fearful of their prospects should the rebellion triumph.

(MORE: Three Acclaimed Journalists Die Covering the War in Syria)

By militarizing the political contest in Syria, Assad has effectively created a sectarian civil war that presents the Syrian population with stark choices that work in his favor. And the more intense and protracted the military conflict becomes, the greater the danger that the de facto leadership of the rebellion passes to more extreme and sectarian elements -- which, of course, reinforces Assad's own hold on his core support.

All sides in Syria, then, appear to be hunkering down for a protracted civil war -- a conflict of a type that, given the external backing on which the combatants rely, is unlikely to end in a rout by either side. And if it ends at the negotiation table, as the Balkan wars of the 1990s did, Assad will be hoping at least to secure his place as a key player at the table. Indeed, even the SNC in a statement last Friday appeared to walk back from its refusal to engage with the regime, saying that negotiation -- if the regime first agrees to a cease-fire -- "is still possible and is likely the best way to achieve the desired goal of regime change." Council members and Western diplomats also tell reporters that Russia's role remains crucial in achieving any settlement to end the violence, despite its dissent from the international consensus.

No surprise, then, that European Union officials were careful following the adoption of the new sanctions on Monday to stress the importance of the role of Kofi Annan, the former U.N. Secretary General who has been appointed as joint U.N.-Arab League envoy for Syria. His job, of course, will be to talk the Assad regime and its enemies into some sort of workable compromise that can end the violence.

MORE: Just When They Needed It Least: The Syrian Opposition Fractures Again

VIDEO: Why They Protest: Egypt, Libya and Syria

View this article on Time.com

Most Popular on Time.com:

View the original article here

Google Builds Political Clout, Hires Key Lobbyist

By Melissa Daniels | Fri Feb 24, 2012 1:37 pm

Google hired former Congresswoman Susan Molinari to run its Washington lobbying efforts, ramping up efforts to influence tech-oriented legislation.

Molinari will begin as Google's vice president of public policy and government relations as early as next month. The high-profile GOP politician represented a Staten Island district from 1990 to 1997, then went into lobbyist work for a number of companies, including Google's newly acquired Motorola.

The hire comes at a time when lawmakers and regulators are looking at Google under an increasingly stringent lens. Google wants, and needs, team members who can navigate Washington processes, formally and on the inside. Hiring an insider like Molinari gives Google an edge above competition at a crucial moment when international concern over possible anti-trust violations is increasing, and regulators are examining Google's digital operations.

Lawmakers are scrutinizing Google's new privacy policy about its treatment of user data. In addition, the recently introduced a Consumer Bill of Rights signals rising federal interest in how digital heavyweights treat users' data and privacy. Google likely hopes Molinari's appointment will keep its best interests from being sideswiped by those of the government.

Political allies are increasingly important for tech giants like Google, as lawmakers engage in philosophical debates about Internet regulation, like the SOPA/PIPA policy, and tech companies assert themselves in the political process. In that instance, pressure from Google and others helped influence the outcome of the anti-piracy legislation, which they say threatened their operation.

Discussions around FCC regulations, which control what telecommunications and Internet companies can and cannot do, are also important to Google as seeks to expand its mobile divisions and experiment with other services.

As these discussions continue, Google is being selective in choosing an insider who knows the ropes like Molinari, whose hiring comes after the exit of Alan Davidson amid the flurry of governmental pressure.

Google is shifting more resources to the political realm as well, spending almost $9.7 million lobbying efforts last year, almost double the $5.1 million in 2010, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

The search giant isn't alone in its attempts to strengthen its political influence. Facebook started a political action committee to gear up for the 2012 elections, and employs a number of former Washington officials within its ranks.

By tapping Molinari to run lobbying efforts, Google is protecting itself from being hobbled by federal policies, and demonstrates that having someone who knows the law will help them navigate how it works. Google's moves are being closely watched by regulators, and congressional decisions potentially threaten its operations, so a decisive lobbying strategy will help Google navigate Capitol Hill wisely, and with experience.

Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:25 pm | By
Google will focus on Android tablet sales this year, as the company strives to make them a cornerstone of its brand and compete against Apple's iPad.



Mon Feb 27, 2012 9:44 am | By
Google is counting on hardware to revive Google Music, hinting it will integrate the service into its own branded devices to compete against Apple.

Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:59 pm | By
Google will launch a new 7-inch tablet this spring, sources say, as the search giant continues its quest to dominate the mobile technology market and compete with rivals like Apple and Amazon.

Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:52 am | By
Google's rapid changes for Motorola are starting to need a scorecard of their own -- not that CEO Sanjay Jha likely will be around to see much of it.

Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:59 pm | By
Google is set to replace Motorola Mobility CEO Sanjay Jha, promoting from within to foster unity between the two companies as the deal gets ready to close.


Editorials & Opinion By Kate Knibbs
Apple is gearing up for the iPhone 5, while adding improvements to its App store.

View the original article here